How Does Climate Change Affect Coffee Growing?
Climate change is the greatest threat to coffee cultivation. Studies project that by 2050, roughly half of today’s Arabica growing areas will no longer be viable.
Why that matters
Arabica is a demanding plant. It needs temperatures between 15 and 24 °C, consistent rainfall, no frost nights, and no extreme heat. Rising average temperatures are pushing the zones where these conditions exist higher up the mountains — and at some point, the mountains run out of space.
The consequences are already visible. In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, droughts and frost events in 2021 and 2022 reduced the harvest by up to 30 % and drove global market prices sharply upward. In Central America, coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix), encouraged by warmer and wetter conditions, cost around 2.7 million jobs between 2012 and 2014.
Four key risks drive the crisis: first, rising temperatures that stress Arabica and shorten ripening time — less sugar, less aroma. Second, altered rainfall patterns — too much rain at the wrong time or drought during the growing phase. Third, increasing pest and disease pressure, as fungi and insects are more aggressive in warmer regions. Fourth, extreme weather events — hail, storms, frost — that can destroy entire harvests.
The coffee industry is responding on multiple levels. Researchers are breeding climate-resistant hybrids — crosses between Arabica and Robusta that tolerate heat better while still delivering good flavour. Farmers are investing in shade trees that lower plantation temperatures by 2–4 °C. And Specialty Robusta is gaining importance because Robusta is more heat-resistant than Arabica.
At Green Wall Coffee
At our café on Sophienstraße 27 in Berlin-Lichtenberg, we feel climate change indirectly: prices rise, availability fluctuates, some lots disappear from one season to the next. I talk openly about this with guests — the coffee in the cup isn’t a given. Drinking specialty coffee supports farmers who invest in quality and sustainability rather than mass production. That alone doesn’t solve climate change — but it creates better conditions for the people who grow our coffee.
More depth on this topic in the article How to Make Perfect Espresso. Or stop by at Sophienstraße 27 — Mon–Fri 8am–5pm, Sat 10am–5pm.